Navigating the Complexities of a Potential Nuclear Iran and US-Iran Negotiations

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is reportedly feeling isolated as he considers the possibility of a nuclear Iran. This comes as the United States prepares for a third round of negotiations with the Iranian regime in Oman. The return of Donald Trump to the White House was seen as a key factor that could have allowed Netanyahu to resolve the nuclear issue. Israel's successful air strikes in October, which disabled much of Iran's air defense systems, briefly opened a window for a coordinated attack on nuclear facilities. However, such an attack would have required the involvement of US forces, which possess the necessary weaponry to penetrate the deeply buried facilities.

These facilities include the main uranium-enrichment site in Natanz, south of Tehran. When the US President offered talks, it was to a regime that insisted it would not negotiate on what it considered a sovereign right. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's recent shift on this issue, possibly influenced by the threat of military strikes, reportedly surprised Trump, who now sees an opportunity for a major deal. A former Mossad official suggested that the chances of an agreement are good, potentially including a significant arms deal between Washington and Tehran. This situation has left Netanyahu unable to act, especially as he has reportedly been told by the US not to carry out any military strikes against Iran.

Even the best outcome of any nuclear deal will not force Iran to completely dismantle its nuclear program. Iran plans to build 19 nuclear reactors for civilian purposes. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has stated that Iran will not compromise on its achievements or allow anyone to prevent its innovation. While Iran is rich in oil, the government's subsidies to make fuel affordable make nuclear power attractive. The US appears to accept this, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio stating that Iran can have a civil nuclear program like other countries, importing enriched material.

However, Israel has little trust in Iranian assurances that its nuclear program will remain for civilian use. Iran violated the previous nuclear deal signed in 2015 after Donald Trump withdrew the US's participation. This included activating advanced uranium-enriching centrifuges at its underground plant in Natanz. An Israeli diplomatic official stated that the current administration is less ideologically driven and experienced than during Trump's previous term. Israel has stated that it will only accept a US-Iran deal if it completely dismantles the Iranian nuclear production infrastructure. A regional analyst suggested that Trump may have initiated negotiations expecting Iran to refuse, but Iran cannot afford to fight on multiple fronts. Trump is now attempting to forge a deal, demonstrating his role as a dealmaker.