Tory Divisions and Reform UK's Ascent in the 2029 Election Landscape

Nigel Farage, leader of Reform UK, likely reacted with satisfaction to the news leaked by Sky News. The report indicated that former Tory leadership candidate Robert Jenrick aimed to "bring this coalition together" to prevent the Conservatives and Reform UK from competing in the upcoming 2029 election. This could be interpreted as a direct challenge to the current Tory leader, Kemi Badenoch. Jenrick reportedly stated his intention to ensure the two parties did not compete, potentially allowing Labour to gain an advantage. While Badenoch has suggested local-level agreements, Jenrick's comments suggest a more significant strategy.

Farage has consistently rejected overtures from the Conservatives, understanding that such moves could be a tactic to prevent Reform UK from becoming the largest party in Parliament by 2029. Current polling data supports this potential outcome. One poll showed Reform winning 180 seats with nearly 24% of the vote. In contrast, the Conservatives and Labour were tied at 165 seats each, both with just over 24% of the vote. Another poll placed Reform UK at 25%, Labour at 23%, and the Conservatives at a mere 20%.

Farage is aware that any attempt to "unite the Right" by the Conservatives could harm Reform's appeal. Voters are drawn to the party's perceived authenticity and its distinctiveness from the Conservatives. Furthermore, Reform is attracting votes from the Labour Party, solidifying its position in the pro-Brexit and former-Labour-supporting Red Wall. The political landscape is shifting, with traditional left-right divisions becoming less relevant. Reform is not simply a revival of Thatcherism but represents a form of low-tax nationalism. Jenrick's comments could create difficulties for Badenoch and raise questions about his own leadership aspirations. For Farage, the positive news continues to accumulate.