Conservatives Deploy Resources as Leadership Hangs in the Balance

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre is reportedly at risk of losing his Ottawa-area riding. Sources from both federal and provincial Conservative parties indicate that the party is deploying volunteers to bolster his campaign in the riding he has held since 2004. The potential loss of his seat could jeopardize his position as the federal party leader, especially with polls suggesting a Liberal victory in the upcoming election.

Party headquarters has been sending experienced campaigners to Mr. Poilievre's riding for the past two weeks, diverting resources from other tight races across the country. The Conservative campaign is also deploying staff from its Ottawa war room to other Conservative-held ridings, a move that suggests the party anticipates potential losses to the Liberals. This is a standard practice in the final days of a campaign.

Internal polling data suggests a close race in Carleton, with Mr. Poilievre in a dead heat with Liberal candidate Bruce Fanjoy. In the 2021 election, Mr. Poilievre won the riding with 52% of the vote, a figure that decreased to 46% in 2019. One internal poll shows the Liberals holding a significant advantage in Ottawa-area ridings. However, a senior federal Liberal insider claims that Mr. Fanjoy is neck and neck with Mr. Poilievre.

Former Conservative Senate leader Marjory LeBreton believes that Mr. Poilievre's leadership could be in jeopardy if he loses the federal election, particularly if he also loses his own riding. She stated that such an outcome could lead to significant internal division within the party.

A federal Conservative Party spokesman downplayed concerns about Mr. Poilievre's seat, stating confidence in his re-election. However, pollster Nik Nanos believes that Mr. Poilievre cannot remain leader if he loses the election.

In the recent Ontario provincial election, the Progressive Conservatives narrowly held the provincial riding that overlaps with Mr. Poilievre's. In the final days of the campaign, Mr. Poilievre is focusing on defense, with a rally scheduled in Saskatoon, a city where the Liberals are showing signs of resurgence.