Migration to Florida and Texas Cools Amid Rising Costs and Risks

Recent data indicates a decline in the number of Americans relocating to Florida and Texas. This shift is attributed to a combination of factors, including the rising cost of living, economic uncertainties, and the increasing risk of natural disasters.

Major metropolitan areas, such as Tampa and Dallas, have experienced significant drops in the influx of new residents. According to data analyzed by a real estate company, Tampa saw a net inflow of just over 10,000 residents in 2024, a substantial decrease from the 35,000 the previous year. Dallas also witnessed a considerable slowdown, with a net inflow of approximately 13,000 residents in 2024, down from 35,000 the year before. Other major areas in Florida and Texas, including Houston, Miami, Orlando, Fort Lauderdale, San Antonio, Fort Worth, and Austin, also reported declines.

Several factors contribute to this trend. One significant concern is the increased frequency and intensity of climate-related disasters, particularly hurricanes, which have led to soaring insurance premiums and homeowner association fees. The rising cost of living is also a major deterrent.

The shift in work dynamics may also be playing a role. During the COVID-19 pandemic, many Americans moved away from major cities due to remote work opportunities and lower mortgage rates, seeking more affordable areas with warmer climates. However, as companies encourage employees to return to the office, fewer people have the flexibility to relocate. Additionally, the gap in housing costs between major job centers and Sun Belt metros has narrowed, making previously affordable areas less attractive.

Conversely, areas in the Midwest and Northeast are becoming more appealing due to their affordability and lower risk of natural disasters. Cities like Minneapolis and Indianapolis, where median home sales and rent prices are lower, have seen an increase in migration in 2024.