US-Ukraine Talks in Saudi Arabia Amidst Tensions and Shifting Battlefield Dynamics

A tense meeting between US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the White House on February 28, 2025, has set the stage for upcoming negotiations. Following the public disagreement, the US paused military aid to Ukraine and ceased sharing intelligence.

Delegations from the US and Ukraine are scheduled to meet in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday. Washington aims to assess Kyiv's willingness to make concessions to resolve the conflict. Ukraine, in turn, hopes to persuade the US to resume aid.

The negotiations will occur amidst Russian advances in the Kursk region. Chinese experts suggest that the US's ability to facilitate peace talks is being impacted by the shifting balance on the battlefield.

The US Secretary of State and National Security Advisor are expected to attend the talks. Ukraine will be represented by Zelensky's head of office, national security advisor, and foreign and defense ministers. The US delegation will be looking for signs of improved relations after the previous heated exchange.

According to reports, Kyiv plans to propose a partial ceasefire with Russia, focusing on long-range drone and missile strikes and combat operations in the Black Sea. They hope this will lead the US to reverse its decision to halt intelligence sharing and weaponry supplies.

A key issue is a potential minerals deal between the US and Ukraine. Ukraine seeks a US security guarantee in exchange for access to certain mineral resources. Trump has indicated he believes Ukraine will sign the deal, but also expressed a desire for them to demonstrate a stronger commitment to peace.

Following the White House meeting, Zelensky described the gathering as "regrettable" and stated his readiness to sign the minerals deal, viewing it as a step towards greater security. The US continues to share some intelligence with Ukraine for defensive operations, but not for attacks on Russian forces.

The negotiations are expected to involve concessions from both sides. Ukraine may agree to the minerals deal, while the US could resume certain security guarantees.

Recent Russian gains in the Kursk region, following the US aid freeze, have further complicated the situation. Trump has signaled a potential shift in approach, considering large-scale sanctions and tariffs on Russia until a ceasefire and peace deal are reached.

Experts suggest Trump is employing a dual strategy. The battlefield dynamics have increased the stakes and created an imbalance of power, potentially limiting the US's ability to influence the peace talks.