Regional Birth Rate Variations, Population Declines, and Policy Initiatives

Recent demographic data released by various Chinese provinces for 2024 reveals significant regional variations in birth rates. Guangdong, Henan, and Shandong provinces led the nation in the number of newborns. Conversely, the northeastern provinces experienced a continued decline in population, with a decrease of over 12 million permanent residents in the last decade. Experts suggest these figures highlight a growing divergence in population trends across different regions.

Among the provinces that released newborn data, seven reported a positive natural population growth rate in 2024. National statistics indicate a negative natural population growth rate for China as a whole for the third consecutive year. However, several provinces, including Guangdong, Guangxi, Fujian, Guizhou, Qinghai, and Xinjiang, have maintained positive growth rates since 2021. Guizhou demonstrated the highest birth rate last year.

Guangdong province saw the highest number of newborns, reaching 1.13 million in 2024, an increase from the previous year. This marks the seventh consecutive year Guangdong has held the top position. This higher birth rate is attributed to the preservation of traditional fertility culture, particularly in areas like Chaoshan and Zhanjiang, where family heritage and ancestral halls play a significant role.

Henan province reported 762,000 newborns in 2024, ranking second nationally, with an increase from the previous year. Shandong followed with 649,000 newborns, also showing an increase. Additionally, Jiangsu, Guangxi, Guizhou, and Zhejiang all recorded over 400,000 newborns in 2024.

In contrast, Liaoning in Northeast China had the lowest birth rate in the country, with a significant decline in newborns. Jilin also experienced a decrease, ranking last among the reporting provinces. The population decline in the three northeastern provinces has become increasingly pronounced over the past decade.

Demographic experts caution against assuming a direct correlation between economic development and population growth. While some economically underdeveloped regions, like Guizhou, have high birth rates, economically developed areas like Shanghai have birth rates below the national average.

Data from the Ministry of Civil Affairs indicates a decline in marriage registrations in 2024 compared to the previous year and a significant drop from a decade ago. Population mobility continues, with rural populations migrating to urban areas and a concentration of people in capital and central cities within provinces.

Government officials have emphasized the need to boost the birth rate through comprehensive support policies, incentive mechanisms, and measures to reduce the costs associated with childbirth, childrearing, and education, aiming to create a fertility-friendly society.