Sir Keir Starmer has received warnings about the potential pitfalls of pursuing a trade deal with Donald Trump, as hopes of avoiding tariffs appear to be diminishing. An advisor to the US president indicated that a significant deal would be required for the UK to improve upon the existing 10 percent tariff.

UK ministers seem increasingly pessimistic about the prospects of a US-UK trade agreement, with some acknowledging that it might take considerable time. This shift contrasts with previous assurances that talks were at an advanced stage. Trade experts suggest the Trump administration is hesitant to lower tariffs below 10 percent, cautioning the UK government against making excessive concessions to secure a deal.

There is a growing sentiment among UK officials to prioritize lower trade barriers with other nations. Economists have urged the Prime Minister to accelerate cooperation with other major economies, citing the US's unreliability as a trade partner under Trump. The US president's temporary delay of tariffs above the base rate of 10 percent, which affects the UK, was followed by warnings of higher rates if countries failed to reach new agreements with the US.

Experts suggest the UK may have to accept the 10 percent tariff going forward. Concerns have also been raised that the US could restrict the UK's ability to pursue trade deals with other countries as part of an agreement. This could involve conditions related to decoupling and de-risking from China.

Former Treasury minister Jim O’Neill supports the idea of seeking other global trade deals. He believes that the negative impact of trade disputes between the US and China is more significant than any potential trade deal with the US.

Economist Jonathan Portes believes that any agreement with the US would primarily serve as "damage limitation." He suggests that the UK would be better off using its concessions to secure a trade deal with India rather than the US for "temporary respite from Trump."

When asked about the government's hopes for a trade deal, a minister stated that the focus remains on securing a deal with the US, while also acknowledging the possibility that it may take time. Sir Keir Starmer denied that the US president was refusing his calls, and the Chancellor has emphasized the UK's commitment to securing the "best deal possible" with the US.

A senior economic advisor to Mr. Trump stated that the 10 percent baseline tariff is likely to remain, and that an "extraordinary deal" would be needed for the president to go below that. The White House is currently in negotiations with approximately 20 countries, with two deals nearing completion.

A shadow chancellor criticized the government's approach to the US tariffs, accusing them of being reactive rather than strategic. He urged ministers to present a positive vision for the UK-US economic relationship that benefits both sides.