A tsunami evacuation tower in Kuroshio, Kochi Prefecture, is a significant structure in Japan. Assessing potential disaster impacts requires a calm approach to develop effective mitigation strategies.

The Cabinet Office recently released new damage estimates for a potential massive earthquake along the Nankai Trough, spanning from central Japan to off Kyushu. One estimate suggests a magnitude 9 quake could cause the strongest seismic intensity across 149 municipalities and result in nearly 300,000 fatalities and millions of destroyed buildings.

While the government aimed to reduce damage based on previous estimates, the latest assessment indicates only a 20% reduction, suggesting limited impact from implemented measures. The estimates used updated data, but concerns exist about the low evacuation rate projected.

The evacuation estimate may not fully reflect local government efforts. If more residents evacuated immediately, fatalities could be significantly reduced. A more meaningful estimate concerns disaster-related deaths, drawing from the recent Noto Peninsula earthquake.

The study highlighted the need for a support network for vulnerable residents. A rapid response structure is crucial, providing essential facilities.

The government plans to review its disaster reduction plan. Clear achievement goals based on the latest estimate are needed. If damage scales remain unchanged, the figures will not be useful.

Major earthquakes along the Nankai Trough occur periodically. Presenting the maximum damage estimate is important. Local governments and companies should use the latest estimate to improve disaster management.