Receding Faster Than It Grew, But Still a Hot-Button Issue in the Upcoming Election

Australia's Migration Surge Receding

Australia's migration surge is receding faster than it grew, with the total number of temporary residents expected to return to pre-pandemic levels soon. This comes despite migration remaining a prominent issue in the upcoming federal election.

Opposition Leader Peter Dutton criticizes the Labor government's "Big Australia policy," arguing that record levels of net migration have worsened the housing crisis. However, economists like Brendan Coates note that the increase in temporary migration has indeed added pressure to the housing market.

Official figures show a decline of 100,000 temporary residents per year since peaking in 2022-23, indicating a return to pre-pandemic levels. The budget projects a further decrease in the coming years.

It's important to distinguish between "net migration" and the "stock" of migrants. Net migration measures the flow of migrants in and out of Australia, while the stock refers to the total number present at any given time. The stock also plummeted during the pandemic but has risen again due to pent-up demand and extended visa decisions.

While international student numbers have returned to pre-pandemic levels, a significant spike in departures is expected in 2027 due to visa extensions, potentially leading to record low migration levels without further government intervention.

ANU migration experts argue that migration numbers have been "weaponized" to elicit panic and sway voters, but that the numbers do not warrant the level of political attention. They believe that migration is already falling and that knee-jerk cuts could cause instability.

Mr. Dutton has promised to cut international student numbers and reduce the permanent migrant intake by 25%. Labor has already moved to limit international students through ministerial direction.