Earth Faces Catastrophic Changes as Global Temperatures Rise, Expert Warns

Urgent Action Needed to Avert Catastrophe

Chao Qingchen, director of China's National Climate Center, has issued a stark warning about the increasing frequency and irreversibility of catastrophic changes on Earth due to rising global temperatures. She emphasizes the urgent need for global cooperation to accelerate the energy transition and mitigate the looming climate crisis.

Data from the World Meteorological Organization shows a global average temperature increase of 1.55°C in 2023, while China's National Climate Center recorded a rise of 1.49°C. Despite variations in data sources and processing methods, the results consistently indicate a continued warming trend, making 2024 the warmest year on record.

However, Chao cautions against concluding that the average global temperature increase will exceed the Paris Agreement's target of limiting warming to within 1.5°C. The agreement aims to keep the global temperature rise below 2°C from pre-industrial levels, with efforts to limit it further to 1.5°C.

Chao notes that the 1.5°C target represents an average temperature increase over 20 to 30 years, not a temporary spike in any single year. This eliminates the impact of short-term natural variations like El Nino on the climate system.

While global temperatures hit record highs in 2023 and 2024, Chao attributes the spikes to the combined effects of long-term warming and El Nino, which lasted from May 2023 to May 2024. Currently, the planet is under the influence of La Nina, which tends to mitigate global warming.

Chao expresses cautious optimism that the temperature increase may not exceed the 1.5°C threshold, citing a study published in Nature Climate Change. The study suggests that while the planet may have entered a 20-year warming period after surpassing 1.5°C last year, there remains a chance that this threshold will not be exceeded in the long run. Strong and rapid mitigation efforts could further reduce that likelihood in the coming years and decades.

However, Chao warns that global warming is intensifying. The planet's average surface temperature from 2015 to 2024 was about 1.2°C higher than pre-industrial levels, making it the warmest decade on record.

Although the 1.5-degree threshold has not yet been officially exceeded, the frequent spikes nearing that level serve as a stark warning. The Earth will face increasingly frequent, systemic, and irreversible catastrophic changes if action is not taken.

Chao emphasizes the urgent need for global cooperation to accelerate the energy transition and strive for net-zero emissions through technological innovation and international collaboration. Additionally, strengthening climate adaptation measures is crucial to address the adverse impacts of the current climate change.