Why a Ceasefire Needs More Than Just a Line and How a Robust Defense Strategy Can Secure Its Future

A Ceasefire's Potential Pitfalls

While a ceasefire in Ukraine seems increasingly likely, experts warn that simply freezing the current front line with Russia could leave the country vulnerable to future attacks. This precarious situation arises from the proximity of Russian forces to key Ukrainian cities and the lack of natural defensive positions between the front line and vital strategic targets.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) emphasizes the need for a more defensible front line, one that provides Ukraine with the strategic depth necessary to deter renewed Russian aggression. This would involve pushing back Russian forces and establishing a line that leverages geographical features to Ukraine's advantage.

However, securing a lasting ceasefire requires more than just a strategically advantageous front line. Security guarantees from the US or other international actors are crucial to deter Russia from exploiting a ceasefire to rearm and launch another offensive. Additionally, a robust "multilayered territorial defense system" is necessary, involving hardened defenses, rapid-response forces, and enhanced protection for cities and critical infrastructure.

While the cost of such a system is significant, it pales in comparison to the current wartime expenditures. Moreover, a strong security guarantee could make even poorly fortified lines more defensible by increasing the potential cost for Russia of any future aggression.

Ultimately, Ukraine's focus should be on securing security guarantees from its allies rather than solely on the demarcation of the front line. With genuine backing from Europe or the US, Ukraine's capacity to deter and withstand future Russian incursions would be significantly enhanced.