Dismantling the Government, Seizing Territory, and Prolonging the Conflict

A Kremlin Think Tank's Plan for Ukraine

A document prepared for the Kremlin by a Moscow-based think tank outlines a plan for Russia's long-term strategy in Ukraine. The document, obtained by a European intelligence agency and reviewed by The Washington Post, argues that a peaceful resolution of the conflict is not possible before 2026.

The plan calls for the complete dismantling of the current Ukrainian government and the establishment of a buffer zone in northeast Ukraine on the border with Russia. It also insists on recognition of Russian sovereignty over the territory it has seized in Ukraine, including Crimea.

The document rejects any notion of peacekeepers in Ukraine and calls for a demilitarized zone in southern Ukraine close to Crimea. It also argues that President Donald Trump's plan to reach a peace agreement within 100 days is "impossible."

Analysts told The Washington Post that Russia is not interested in an early resolution of the Ukraine crisis. They noted that Russia consistently talks about the root causes of the conflict, which are related to domestic politics in Ukraine and the European security architecture, specifically the role of NATO. A simple ceasefire that doesn't address these issues is of no interest to Russia.

The Kremlin spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, told the newspaper that the Russian government was not aware of the recommendations outlined in the document. He said they were "extremely contradictory" and added that the government is working with more considered options.

A Russian academic with connections to top Russian diplomats told The Post that the recommendations in the document are an amalgamation of the consensus in the Russian capital. He noted that it's unclear how much the Kremlin takes into account documents prepared for it.

The document states that without official recognition of the territories seized by Russia, it's likely that the fighting would begin again, "for example after the next change of administration in the U.S.