Concerns Over Submarine Supply and US Navy Capability

Concerns Over Submarine Supply to Australia

Elbridge Colby, a top pick for the Pentagon under the Trump administration, has expressed concerns about the Aukus agreement and its potential impact on the US Navy. While he supports the idea of empowering Australia with attack submarines, he worries that selling them could leave US sailors vulnerable due to insufficient submarine production.

Colby emphasizes the critical role of attack submarines in defending Taiwan and other key regions in the Indo-Pacific. He argues that prioritizing submarine production for the US Navy is crucial to ensure its readiness in the event of conflict.

The Aukus agreement, signed in 2021, stipulates that the US will sell Australia between three and five Virginia-class nuclear-powered submarines. However, the agreement also requires the US president to certify that this sale will not diminish the US Navy's undersea capability.

Currently, the US submarine fleet is significantly below its target, and production rates are insufficient to meet both domestic and Australian needs. Experts believe the chance of meeting the certification requirement is minimal.

Colby suggests an alternative approach where the US would retain its submarines and operate them out of Australian bases. This would allow Australia to invest in other military capabilities, such as long-range missiles and drones.

Colby also urges Australia to increase its defense spending to 3% of GDP, citing the significant challenge posed by China. Australia's current defense spending is below this target, although the Albanese government has committed to increasing it to 2.4% of GDP by 2033-34.

Overall, Colby's concerns highlight the complex challenges associated with the Aukus agreement and the need for careful consideration of its potential impact on both the US and Australian militaries.