Analysts Predict China's 2025 GDP Growth Target to Remain Around 5 Percent

Analysts and financial institutions continue to foresee China setting a GDP growth target of approximately 5 percent for 2025, drawing their conclusions from the economic targets already outlined by China's 31 provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions. Should these predictions materialize, it would establish the third straight year where China aims for around 5 percent economic growth since 2023.

Experts believe the Chinese government will likely introduce additional policy measures designed to bolster domestic consumption and support growth in artificial intelligence sectors. This expectation stems from information found in recent provincial work reports, which underscore these two areas as vital components for meeting national economic objectives.

The official growth target for the country, which is closely followed by global markets, will be formally released by China's Premier during the annual meeting of the National People's Congress (NPC) on Wednesday, March 5, held as part of China's prominent political gathering known as the Two Sessions. These meetings include the NPC—the national legislature—and the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), the country's highest political advisory group, making it China's most significant political event each year.

In preparation for the NPC session, President Xi Jinping presided over a Politburo meeting on February 28 to evaluate the government's work report. On the same day, Xi’s statements expressing optimism about China's economic resilience, despite considerable external pressures and domestic difficulties, were conveyed by the state news agency, Xinhua.

CNA's examination of local government reports reveals that most regions have set GDP growth rate targets in the range of approximately 5.0 to 5.5 percent, averaging about 5.3 percent. This aggregate figure is slightly lower than the 5.4 percent mark set the previous year, yet analysts consider it both prudent and practical.

According to Lynn Song, ING Bank’s chief economist for Greater China, the combined provincial targets collectively assure reaching near the "around 5 percent" national benchmark. She added that policymakers might prefer to retain the target around the same level to demonstrate stability and confidence. Overall, the potential target of around 5 percent is viewed as cautious, realistic, and indicative of China’s resolve to maintain steady economic progress despite the complex environment it faces.