A Divided Nation, an Uncertain Alliance, and a Looming Conflict

Can Peace Be Achieved in Ukraine?

The ongoing war in Ukraine has left many wondering if peace is even possible. While both Ukraine and Russia claim to desire an end to the conflict, their goals remain far apart. Russia seeks to dominate Ukraine, seizing territory and preventing its integration with NATO. Ukraine, on the other hand, fights for its survival and a future within the Western sphere.

"My view is that what Russia wants, the US can't deliver and the Ukrainians won't accept," says Sir Lawrence Freedman, an emeritus professor at King's College London.

While Ukraine might accept a de facto partition along current front lines, it is unlikely to accept more onerous terms. Most Ukrainians reject falling under Russian influence, and the desire to resist remains widespread.

The Role of the United States

The recent diplomatic fiasco between the US and Ukraine has raised concerns about future US military aid. While nearly $4 billion in unallocated aid remains from previous approvals, hints suggest it could be cut.

A halt to US military aid would significantly impact Ukraine's battlefield situation, though the effect would be gradual. Ukrainian officials estimate that 20% of their military hardware comes from the US, with the remaining 55% and 25% coming from Ukraine and Europe, respectively. However, the US contribution includes the most capable equipment, which would be difficult to replace.

Can Europe Fill the Gap?

air defense, long-range ballistic missiles, and satellite communications.

Furthermore, the cost of replacing US aid is significant. The US has already provided $33.8 billion in arms and ammunition, along with $33.2 billion for Ukraine to purchase US-made weapons. European military aid has been at a similar level, at €62 billion. To fully replace US aid, European donations would need to double.

Guaranteeing Peace in Ukraine

Discussions have emerged about a European-led "reassurance force" to guarantee peace in Ukraine. However, this would require a ceasefire, which Russia opposes. Even if Russia cannot veto the deployment of peacekeepers in territory it doesn't control, its opposition would leave European troops in a risky position.

The UK had pushed for the US to provide air power as a "backstop" to any stabilization force in Ukraine. However, recent events have made this prospect less likely. The lack of a US commitment raises the difficult question of how the safety of European peacekeepers would be guaranteed.

The Future of NATO and Transatlantic Security

The current situation has exposed the fragility of the transatlantic security alliance under Trump's presidency. Europe's focus on economic development has relied on the US security umbrella. Now, with Trump's commitment to NATO uncertain and the future of US troops in Europe unclear, the alliance faces a critical juncture.

"It's been clear for some time that the US has other security priorities," says Ellehuus. "Will NATO survive now? That's a harder question.