Public Opinion, Constitutional Hurdles, and Unlikely Prospects

Public Opinion and Constitutional Hurdles

A recent poll reveals that over half of Americans believe President Donald Trump will attempt to run for a third term, despite the constitutional amendment limiting presidents to two terms. The survey found that 21% of respondents believe Trump will "definitely" try for a third term, while 31% believe it's "probable."

Trump himself has fueled speculation by musing about the possibility, even though the 22nd Amendment explicitly prohibits it. He has stated that he may feel "entitled" to more than two terms, while also suggesting he might not want to run again after his current term ends in 2029.

Despite Trump's rhetoric, congressional Democrats have proposed a measure to clarify that the 22nd Amendment forbids a third term. Additionally, a constitutional amendment recently proposed by Tennessee Republican Rep. Andy Ogles would allow Trump to serve a third term, but it faces significant hurdles.

The amendment would require a two-thirds majority vote in both the House of Representatives and the Senate, where Republicans currently hold slim majorities. Even if it passes Congress, it would need the support of three-fourths of all state legislatures for ratification.

The 22nd Amendment was ratified in 1951 after President Franklin D. Roosevelt served four consecutive terms, from 1932 to 1944. The amendment limits presidents to a maximum of two full terms, with an exception for vice presidents who become president during their predecessor's term and serve less than half of the remaining term.

While Trump has shown a willingness to challenge constitutional norms in his first presidency, securing a third term through a constitutional amendment would be a monumental task. The amendment would require significant bipartisan support and approval from a large majority of state legislatures, making it highly unlikely to succeed.