A Statistical Analysis

James Howells, a Welsh IT engineer, is on a mission to recover a lost fortune in Bitcoin. He accidentally threw away a hard drive containing 8,000 bitcoins, now worth an estimated £600 million. However, the hard drive is buried somewhere in a landfill site containing 1.4 billion kg of waste.

The odds of finding the hard drive seem astronomically low. A simple calculation reveals a probability of 0.000000000007, or roughly a one in 143 billion chance. This is over 3,000 times less likely than winning the UK's National Lottery jackpot.

is it worth the time and money?

If it takes 1 second to search each 1,000 cubic centimeter section of the landfill, it would take 316 years of continuous searching to cover the entire site. However, a team of searchers could significantly reduce this time.

Financially, the decision is more complex. The expected value of the search, considering the probability of success and the potential reward, is £1.9 million per year of searching. This means that if the search costs less than this amount, it could be a worthwhile investment.

Ultimately, the decision of whether or not to search the landfill rests with Howells. The statistical analysis provides a framework for evaluating the odds and potential rewards, but the final choice involves weighing the financial risks and the allure of a life-changing fortune.