A Statistical Analysis
James Howells, a Welsh IT engineer, is on a mission to recover a lost fortune in Bitcoin. He accidentally threw away a hard drive containing 8,000 bitcoins, now worth an estimated £600 million. However, the hard drive is buried somewhere in a landfill site containing 1.4 billion kg of waste.
The odds of finding the hard drive seem astronomically low. A simple calculation reveals a probability of 0.000000000007, or roughly a one in 143 billion chance. This is over 3,000 times less likely than winning the UK's National Lottery jackpot.
is it worth the time and money?
If it takes 1 second to search each 1,000 cubic centimeter section of the landfill, it would take 316 years of continuous searching to cover the entire site. However, a team of searchers could significantly reduce this time.
Financially, the decision is more complex. The expected value of the search, considering the probability of success and the potential reward, is £1.9 million per year of searching. This means that if the search costs less than this amount, it could be a worthwhile investment.
Ultimately, the decision of whether or not to search the landfill rests with Howells. The statistical analysis provides a framework for evaluating the odds and potential rewards, but the final choice involves weighing the financial risks and the allure of a life-changing fortune.
6 Comments
Donatello
The odds might be low, but someone has to win the lottery, right? 😉
Leonardo
There are countless stories of people losing valuables and never finding them. This is just another one of those stories. Sad, but true. 😔
Raphael
Moving on... ➡️
Michelangelo
Is this just a publicity stunt? 🤨
Leonardo
With a team and the right technology, searching the landfill could be much faster and more efficient. They just need a good plan and some dedicated people. 💪
Muchacho
😮 8,000 Bitcoin?! That's a life-changing amount of money! But digging through 1.4 billion kg of waste? No way! 🤢