As the conflict in Ukraine persists, speculation has intensified over the possibility of Western brands returning to Russia, driven by calls from Washington for an expedited resolution. However, any re-entrance would occur in a market that has undergone considerable changes, with Western sanctions complicating cross-border payments and trade. Companies looking to re-establish a presence would confront an environment now dominated by domestic competitors and, in some sectors like automotive, increased influence from Chinese brands.

The exit of many foreign retailers has presented new opportunities for local businesses. For instance, a men's clothing chain named Henderson, which recently listed on the Moscow Exchange, has leveraged the availability of prime retail locations in shopping centers. This strategic advantage has fueled a rapid expansion in sales, far outpacing the overall growth of the menswear market. Despite the retention of some Western brands, a shift has occurred in how these brands operate, with many partnering with local multi-brand stores or adapting their branding strategies to fit the new market conditions.

Additionally, the legal framework in Moscow has adapted to the departure of international players by legalizing grey imports through third countries, enabling the continued sale of foreign goods even in the absence of official trademark permissions. Prime retail spaces, once occupied by flagship Western stores, are now the domain of Russian brands that have secured long-term contracts, setting the stage for continued competition as soon-to-return companies scramble to reclaim their former spots.

On the political front, President Vladimir Putin has signaled that returning foreign businesses might face preferential treatment for domestic manufacturers, further complicating any potential comeback. While some U.S. companies are expected to return soon, according to government representatives, the prevailing sentiment among many Western firms remains cautious, with some stating that a re-entrance into the market is unlikely under current conditions.

In the automotive industry, the departure of well-known international carmakers left a void that Chinese competitors have since filled, dramatically shifting the market share landscape. The rise of Chinese brands, alongside a modest increase in domestic car production, underscores the broader trend of market restructuring witnessed across sectors, including retail, where local brands have not only gained in popularity but have also become more competitive both in quality and pricing.

Overall, the consumer response in Russia has been positive towards local and domestic brands, with shoppers appreciating the improvements in product quality and availability. The evolving landscape suggests that while foreign brands may eventually return, they will need to navigate a market that has grown more resilient and competitive in the years following their exit.