Ukraine’s president is reported to have agreed to a minerals deal with Donald Trump, an arrangement that has pushed the Russian rouble to its highest level against the U.S. dollar in recent months. Currency traders see the deal as favoring the Kremlin more than Kyiv, with expectations that better U.S.-Russian relations underlie the market’s optimism.

In this context, Ukraine is portrayed as compelled to yield to a form of protection from Russia—a strategy likened to a street-level mafia operation, with Trump stepping into a role that merely collects rent rather than providing genuine security. Reports indicate that Russia’s financial indicators, including its currency and stock market index, have benefited noticeably from these developments.

The specifics of the deal remain somewhat murky. The agreement, which is anticipated to be signed in Washington, allegedly involves the establishment of a joint investment fund by the U.S. and Ukraine, where half of the profits from Ukrainian mineral extraction would be funneled into this financial vehicle. Ukrainian officials have suggested that the United States intends to support the creation of a stable and economically prosperous Ukraine, although the promised security guarantees seem to fall short of what Kyiv needs.

Furthermore, while Ukraine has received assurances of military equipment and the allowance to continue its defensive efforts, critics warn that these commitments are far from sufficient. The approach reflects a broader U.S. policy shift that appears to prioritize improved economic ties with Russia, indirectly weakening Ukraine’s negotiating position. As European nations scramble to bolster their own defense spending amid a reduction in American commitments, Ukraine remains caught in a precarious bargaining position.

The deal highlights the stark disparity in defense spending among Ukraine’s allies, with the U.S., EU, and UK contributing different levels of support measured against their GDP. Despite claims by Trump that the U.S. has spent a substantial amount on Ukraine—figures that have been widely challenged—the underlying sentiment is that the new arrangement might compromise Ukraine’s autonomy and extend its vulnerability in the ongoing geopolitical struggle.