Stark New Analysis Warns of Devastating Consequences

2°C Warming Target Now "Impossible"

Science and Policy for Sustainable Development," concludes that holding global warming to 2°C, the fallback target of the Paris climate accord, is now "impossible."

The paper highlights two key factors contributing to this grim outlook. Firstly, Earth's climate is more sensitive to rising greenhouse gas emissions than previously thought. Secondly, a recent decline in sunlight-blocking aerosol pollution from the shipping industry has removed a mitigating factor, further accelerating warming.

The authors argue that an ambitious climate change scenario outlined by the U.N.'s climate panel, which gives the planet a 50% chance of keeping warming under 2°C by 2100, is no longer plausible. The amount of greenhouse gases already emitted guarantees increased warming, leading to devastating consequences.

Temperatures are expected to stay at or above 1.5°C in the coming years, causing widespread damage to coral reefs and fueling more intense storms. By 2045, temperatures are projected to reach around 2°C, triggering the shutdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) within the next 20-30 years.

The AMOC plays a crucial role in regulating global climate, bringing warmth to various parts of the globe and carrying nutrients necessary for ocean life. Its shutdown would have catastrophic consequences, including sea level rise of several meters.

The authors acknowledge the grimness of their findings but emphasize the importance of honesty in addressing the climate crisis. They call for a realistic assessment of the situation and a rejection of ineffective policies. They remain optimistic for the future, believing that facing the problem head-on and addressing the influence of special interests can pave the way for meaningful change.