UK-EU Alignment Could Drive Up to 2.2% Economic Growth

A recent study by Frontier Economics, commissioned by Best for Britain, reveals that if the UK aligns its regulations more closely with those of the EU, the economy could see an uplift of between 1.7% and 2.2%. According to the report—which mirrors the UK government’s own projections for the ongoing Brexit reset negotiations—such alignment could prove especially beneficial at a time when the country is on the brink of recession. Political figures like Sir Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves are banking on these prospects to reinvigorate their economic growth strategies, while chief negotiator Nick Thomas-Symonds is optimistic about securing a deal within three months.

The study distinguishes between deep alignment on both goods and services and a more focused approach on goods alone, with the latter still generating significant benefits. The concept of deep alignment goes beyond merely adopting identical rules; instead, it aims for a mutual recognition of standards, which would ease trade not only for the UK but also for its European counterparts. The report also highlights that regulatory cooperation can drive growth outside London, with regions like the West Midlands, East Midlands, North East, and Yorkshire set to benefit disproportionately.

Further adding to its appeal, the report points out that improved alignment would help mitigate the economic fallout from Brexit, potentially recovering up to half of the previously estimated GDP loss. The findings suggest that additional growth could fund crucial public investments, such as an increase to the NHS capital budget, and would also offer a buffer against disruptions such as US tariffs, ensuring smoother trade flows between the UK and the EU.

Trade experts have voiced cautious optimism regarding the practicability of these figures, noting that achieving them would require significant goodwill from the EU—a sentiment that may be difficult to secure early in the negotiations. Despite these challenges, widespread public support for closer regulatory alignment is evident, with polling data showing strong backing from nearly all UK constituencies. Leaders across the political spectrum see this strategy as a pivotal move to restore and enhance trade relations, dampen the economic impact of Brexit, and capitalize on an opportunity to significantly uplift the nation's broader economic prospects.