A Major Blow for Labor, a Boost for Liberals, and a Warning for the Future of Victorian Politics

A Major Blow for Labor

The Werribee by-election delivered a significant blow to Premier Jacinta Allan and her Labor government. In this traditionally Labor-voting heartland, voters expressed their dissatisfaction with the government through a substantial swing towards the Liberal Party.

This "Super Saturday" of by-elections saw the Liberals achieve their best electoral result since 2010, winning Prahran from the Greens and potentially seizing Werribee. This outcome is a positive sign for new Liberal Leader Brad Battin and his federal counterpart Peter Dutton, suggesting their strategy of appealing to voters in once-safe Labor seats could be successful.

While the final result in Werribee remains too close to call, the collapse of Labor's primary vote is concerning. With only 28.6% of the primary vote, Labor faces a monumental task if it aims to win a historic fourth term. This result echoes recent statewide polls showing Labor's primary vote at a concerning 22%.

The by-election outcome reflects growing discontent among voters in traditionally safe Labor seats. Residents in Werribee and other outer suburbs feel neglected, with infrastructure projects concentrated in Melbourne's east and south-east. This dissatisfaction extends to concerns about crime and the rising cost of living, further eroding support for the government.

The Werribee result also raises concerns for Labor's prospects in the upcoming November 2026 election. With dozens of seats holding smaller margins than Werribee, the party faces an uphill battle to retain power. While there is still time to address these issues, the recent by-election serves as a stark warning for Labor.

The pressure on Premier Allan is mounting. In the lead-up to the by-election, she acknowledged the need for action on crime, particularly youth crime. However, concerns remain about the government's ability to address these issues effectively, especially with the ongoing budget woes.

The by-election also highlights the challenges Labor faces in the outer suburbs. These areas were hit hard by COVID and are now struggling with rising interest rates. The anger towards the government is palpable, and Labor must find a way to regain the trust of these voters.

While the Liberals have reason to celebrate, they must also acknowledge that many voters are simply disillusioned with both major parties. This presents an opportunity for minor parties to gain traction, as evidenced by the significant number of voters opting for alternatives to Labor and the Liberals.

The Werribee by-election serves as a wake-up call for Labor. The party must address the concerns of voters in outer suburbs, tackle crime and the cost of living, and rebuild trust if it hopes to remain in power. The next election is still a long way off, but the clock is ticking for Labor.