Progress, Challenges, and Implications for Taiwan's Defense

Progress and Challenges

The Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) is undergoing rapid modernization, but still lacks the joint warfare capability necessary to conquer Taiwan, according to the Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) in its latest quarterly report on China.

While the PLA has made significant progress in modernizing its multi-domain and joint warfare capabilities, it still faces challenges in fully achieving the coordination needed for complex operations. These challenges include gaps in command and control, long-range logistics, urban warfare, and joint operations beyond the first island chain.

Despite operating the world's largest naval fleet, the PLA's ability to conduct joint warfare beyond the first island chain remains limited by unresolved organizational and institutional issues. The PLA has not yet created a unified network command and control system that would allow ground, aviation, and naval forces to share intelligence, distribute firepower, and coordinate maneuvers in joint operations.

Xi Jinping's anti-corruption campaigns could also delay the PLA's 2027 modernization goals. However, combat readiness and proficiency have steadily improved, according to the Pentagon. Military drills have increasingly focused on preparing for crises in the Taiwan Strait, enhancing the PLA's capabilities for a potential Taiwan invasion and ensuring no third-party intervention.

Despite these improvements, the US does not believe a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is imminent. Beijing cannot yet win a short and decisive campaign while keeping losses at an acceptable level. It remains unclear whether China has made enough progress to achieve the conditions for a successful Taiwan campaign.

Beijing's primary concern remains potential intervention by US forces outside the second island chain, leading to an increase in its arsenal of intercontinental ballistic missiles by 12.3% and medium-range ballistic missiles by 30%. However, China's short-range ballistic missile stock, covering the Taiwan Strait and surrounding regions, has decreased by 10%, suggesting attrition due to exercises.