Five Years On - A Mixed Legacy of Economic Uncertainty and Public Division

Five Years On

Five years ago, on January 31st, 2020, the United Kingdom officially left the European Union. This marked the end of a 47-year membership, sparking both celebration and concern across the nation.

While a trade agreement was eventually reached on Christmas Eve 2020, the full impact of Brexit on the UK economy remains unclear. Independent assessments suggest a negative impact, with a contraction in trade and investment and a long-term hit to GDP.

Despite calls for a government assessment, none has been released. Instead, the focus has shifted away from the divisive issue, with both major parties hesitant to revisit the topic. This reflects a sense of exhaustion among the public, who largely voted for a "done deal" in the 2019 election to achieve some level of closure.

Public opinion on Brexit remains divided. While a majority now believe it was the wrong decision, a significant portion still support it. Younger generations are particularly critical, with three-quarters of 18-24 year olds believing it was the wrong choice.

The Labour Party, despite its pro-European stance, has ruled out rejoining the EU or its single market. Instead, they advocate for a closer relationship and a "reset" on trade and defense cooperation. This cautious approach reflects concerns about alienating voters in marginal constituencies and facing backlash from the Eurosceptic media.

Other parties, like the Liberal Democrats, call for rejoining the customs union to boost economic growth. However, they face the challenge of distinguishing themselves from the Conservatives, who have shifted towards Euroscepticism, and appealing to voters in Remain areas.

Rejoining the EU would come with significant conditions, including adopting the euro, accepting free movement of labor, and potentially facing another referendum. This package may not be appealing to the public, hence the silence from Labour leader Keir Starmer.

While rejoining the EU seems unlikely in the near future, it remains a possibility if circumstances change. A significant economic decline or pressure from the US could push the UK back towards the EU.

Ultimately, the future of Brexit remains uncertain. While it may not survive its 20th anniversary, it has undoubtedly left a lasting impact on the UK's political and economic landscape.