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China's Population Decline Raises Alarm Over Demographic Challenges

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In 2024, China reported a population drop of 1.39 million individuals, marking the third straight year of decline and bringing the total population to approximately 1.408 billion. This trend highlights serious demographic challenges faced by the country, such as an increasing elderly demographic and a diminishing labor force. The patterns observed in China are reflective of wider issues throughout East Asia, where countries such as Japan and South Korea are also contending with low birth rates.

Factors contributing to this decline include high living expenses, deferred marriage and parenthood, and a strong emphasis on education and career advancement. The situation is particularly acute in China due to its limited immigration, which intensifies the impact of these trends. Historically, China experienced rapid population growth, with numbers doubling within 30 years after the Communist Party's establishment in 1949. Concerns about resource scarcity led to the implementation of the "one-child policy" in the late 1970s, which, although not officially codified, imposed harsh regulations on family size through forced abortions and fines, discouraging unauthorized births that effectively led to statelessness for some children.

The strict birth control measures also influenced societal preferences for male children, creating an imbalanced sex ratio. Current data indicates there are 104.34 males for every 100 females, though some estimates suggest the disparity may be more severe. The birthrate has seen a significant decline, resulting in a population decrease in 2023 for the first time in decades and leading India to surpass China as the world's most populous nation that same year. Presently, more than 22 percent of China's population is aged 60 or older, a figure expected to exceed 30 percent by 2035, which places considerable strain on the country's fragile social security framework and motivates discussions about raising the retirement age, currently among the lowest in the world.

Although the government has introduced incentives such as cash incentives and housing subsidies to encourage families to have up to three children, the effectiveness of these measures has only been temporary. The trend of urbanization continues, with an additional 10 million individuals migrating to cities in 2024, raising the urbanization rate to 67 percent. As student enrollment numbers decline, some educational institutions are being converted into elder care facilities, reflecting the shifting demographic landscape. Analysts caution that, amid economic challenges and social pressures, China risks "growing old before it grows rich," as the combination of an aging population and declining labor force could severely impact future economic prospects.

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May 21, 2023 | 05:09