China's Birth Rate Shows Increase in 2024 Amid Population Challenges

Nurses at a hospital in Zunyi, located in southwest China's Guizhou Province, are tending to newborns as recent statistics reveal a shift in China's demographic trends. According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the number of births in China rose by 520,000 in 2024, reaching a total of 9.54 million, which correlates to a birth rate of 6.77 per thousand. This contrasts with the death toll of 10.93 million, leading to a negative natural population growth rate of 0.99 per thousand.

The increase in births from 2023, which had 9.02 million births and a rate of 6.39 per thousand, can be linked to several factors. Professor Yuan Xin from the Institute of Population and Development at Nankai University noted that the increase in marriages and supportive government policies significantly contributed to this trend. The number of first-time marriages in 2023 hit 11.939 million—a rise of 1.4222 million from 2022—marking a 13.52 percent year-on-year increase, the first uptick since 2014.

Cultural elements also played a role, with 2023 being celebrated as the Year of the Dragon, a symbol that traditionally corresponds with higher birth rates in Chinese culture. Recent policy changes, such as the 2021 amendment to the population and family planning law that allows for a three-child policy, and upcoming initiatives to improve fertility support, are also believed to be gradually showing their effects.

At a press conference, an NBS official announced that as of the end of 2024, China's total population stood at 1,408.28 million—a decrease of 1.39 million from 2023. This data reflects the population across various regions but excludes residents from Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan, as well as foreign nationals. The demographic breakdown indicates that 60.9 percent of the population is between the ages of 16 to 59, while 22 percent are aged 60 and older, signaling significant shifts in the age structure of the populace.