China's Population Decline Continues Despite Slight Increase in Newborns

On March 29th, Han Yuanhui and her husband Ren Jinliang were seen care for their newborn in a hospital in Shanxi Province. Recent statistics reveal that China's population has dropped for the third year in a row, yet the number of newborns has slightly increased, suggesting that the government's efforts to foster a birth-friendly environment are beginning to take effect.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, there were 9.54 million births last year, marking an increase from the previous year's 9.02 million. Despite this, the overall population still declined by 1.39 million due to the high number of deaths, which totaled 10.93 million, bringing the population down to 1.408 billion. This continues a trend from earlier years where the population dropped by 2.08 million in 2023 and by 850,000 in 2022.

Experts like Yuan Xin, an economist at Nankai University, believe several factors contributed to this rise in newborns. These factors include an increase in marriage registrations during 2023, the auspicious Year of the Dragon in 2024, and the introduction of various supportive measures for births. Since 2021, the Chinese government has been actively establishing policies to encourage fertility, and these initiatives appear to have produced positive results, as evidenced by the rise in birth rates.

Significant policy changes have been made since June 2021, allowing couples to have a third child and amending laws to support family planning. Yuan highlights that improvements in fertility policies, technology, and support systems have become more comprehensive over the past couple of years.

In addition, Lu Jiehua from Peking University emphasizes that local governments have initiated numerous incentives to assist families, such as increased maternity leave and financial subsidies for childbirth and childcare. The push to enhance nursery care access is particularly crucial, aiming for 4.5 nursery slots per 1,000 people by the end of 2025, which addresses a major concern for families seeking childcare solutions.

However, experts caution that this increase in births may not be sustainable. Yuan explains that due to the decreasing number of women of reproductive age, the annual number of births is expected to decline in the future, regardless of improved fertility rates. Current data also reveals that the population aged 60 and over reached 310 million in 2024, accounting for 22 percent of the overall population, highlighting the already aging demographic trend in the country.