Political Turmoil in Europe and Its Complications for Brexit Reversal

Recent developments indicate a closer relationship among various sectors, including the economy, defense, and exchanges, even amidst rising tension within the European bloc. Major nations are grappling with significant domestic political challenges; for instance, in Germany, Chancellor Olaf Scholz's coalition government is on the brink of collapse, setting the stage for an election that he is expected to lose. Similarly, in France, Emmanuel Macron faces mounting pressure from the far-right National Rally, having seen four Prime Ministers come and go within just one year.

Given the current political climate in Europe and the forthcoming inauguration of Donald Trump as the President of the United States, the chances of reversing Brexit appear slim for the next four years. Trump's previous hardline stance towards the European Union, which includes a threat to impose tariffs unless the EU increases its oil and gas imports from the US, adds another layer of uncertainty. In a post on Truth Social, he emphasized that the EU should address its trade deficit with the US by purchasing more American energy resources or face significant tariffs. Reflecting this context, the odds for a second referendum on Brexit have drastically decreased, with predictions of another vote in 2035 or beyond now at a mere 2/9.