Challenges in U.S. Submarine Production Amid AUKUS Ambitions

A new analysis from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) reveals the substantial challenges facing America's shipyards as they aim to boost the production of nuclear-powered submarines. This increase is critical for facilitating the sale of Virginia-class boats to Australia under the ambitious AUKUS program, which involves a $368 billion deal. Senior military leaders remain confident in the initiative, suggesting that future Australian submarines are likely to be equipped with advanced hypersonic missiles.

As part of the AUKUS agreement, Australia anticipates receiving at least three pre-owned Virginia-class submarines from the U.S., starting in the early 2030s, followed by the development of a new submarine class in partnership with the United Kingdom known as SSN-AUKUS. However, the U.S. government faces the daunting task of increasing its current nuclear submarine production from approximately 1.2 to 2.3 boats per year by 2032 to maintain overall force numbers while transferring older vessels to Australia.

The CBO's recent findings indicate that the U.S. Navy's focus on constructing the larger Columbia-class ballistic missile submarines is causing delays that could further hinder Virginia-class production. The analysis suggests that it would be both challenging and costly for U.S. shipyards to meet the demand for attack submarines while simultaneously fulfilling the requirement to produce one Columbia-class submarine each year. Notably, the Columbia-class subs are significantly larger than their Virginia-class counterparts and require greater resources and effort to build.

The report expresses concern that selling Virginia-class submarines to Australia could result in a reduction of available attack submarines for the U.S. Navy, given the higher priority of Columbia-class vessels. It discusses the potential strategic implications of ceding submarine capabilities to Australia, indicating that while Australian submarines could enhance the response to conflicts in the Asia-Pacific region, their operational usage would not be guaranteed, as Australia maintains control over its own fleet.

the limited supply of submarines available for sale to Australia, despite substantial investments. Concerns have been raised about whether the U.S. shipbuilding industry can manage the production demands, particularly with the additional challenge of constructing a new class of Columbia-class submarines.

Meanwhile, the head of the Australian Submarine Agency, Vice-Admiral Jonathan Mead, has expressed confidence in the progress of the AUKUS submarine program, highlighting ongoing efforts behind the scenes. He mentioned the potential for the upcoming SSN-AUKUS submarines, designed in collaboration with the UK, to feature advanced hypersonic missile capabilities, which would enhance their overall effectiveness in modern warfare scenarios.