Nicolás Maduro Set to Begin Controversial Third Term Amidst Opposition and International Scrutiny

Nicolás Maduro is set to commence his third six-year term in office on January 10, as the congress, which is heavily influenced by his ruling party, organizes the swearing-in ceremony. This event is mired in controversy due to significant skepticism regarding the fairness of the July 28 election, which saw Maduro proclaim a victory margin of over one million votes, despite strong belief among critics that opposition candidate Edmundo González actually won decisively. The U.S.-based Carter Center, invited by Maduro’s administration to oversee the election, endorsed the validity of the opposition's published tally sheets, further intensifying doubts about the electoral integrity.

Maduro’s inauguration will enable him to further entrench policies that have led to rampant cronyism, severe inflation, and widespread food shortages during his more than 11 years in power. In anticipation of the inauguration, opposition leaders have called for mass protests, although recent government crackdowns, which have resulted in over 2,000 arrests, have instilled fear and may inhibit participation. Prominent opposition figure María Corina Machado is emerging from a period of hiding to contest Maduro's legitimacy.

Edmundo González, who is recognized by the U.S. as the actual president-elect of Venezuela, was forced to escape to Spain following an arrest warrant issued against him. Recently, he has reemerged in public and is engaging in an international tour to fortify support for the opposition. Notably, he met with President Biden at the White House, describing their discussion as productive, despite the Venezuelan government's announcement of a $100,000 reward for information leading to his capture.

The recent political landscape in Venezuela raises concerns regarding the potential response of the incoming Trump administration to Maduro’s regime. Trump had previously taken a resolute stance against Maduro during his first term, but speculation arises about whether he will adopt a similar “maximum pressure” strategy this time, particularly as he navigates issues surrounding immigration, given the large number of Venezuelan refugees. Analysts suggest that the new administration may approach the situation with a revised strategy that considers lessons from past policies while maintaining a goal of supporting the opposition and finding measures to address the Maduro government's threats to regional stability.