The tourism sector in Ireland is experiencing a wave of concern as operators highlight a "sobering context" for the upcoming season. Factors such as the war in Ukraine, fluctuations in trade and tariffs linked to Donald Trump’s new administration, and rising global inflation are expected to take a toll on the country’s tourism industry. However, the main obstacle hindering growth is the 32 million passenger limit set for Dublin Airport, a restriction that dates back to a planning agreement made in 2007, which permitted the construction of a second terminal.

This cap was deemed necessary by the Irish Aviation Authority (IAA) to adhere to specific planning conditions but has led to lost investment opportunities and a decrease in services to crucial destinations for both trade and tourism. Experts warn that the limitations imposed on Ireland’s busiest airport could cause broader economic issues for the country. According to a forecaster from the Irish Tourist Industry Confederation (ITIC), the passenger cap at Dublin Airport is the primary impediment to growth. With a significant portion of the Irish tourism economy reliant on international visitors, it is essential for the airport to have the capacity to expand. While there is a temporary court ruling that suspends the cap for next summer, the underlying restriction continues to be a pressing issue.

Ireland stands unique as the only major European destination experiencing a decline in air travel, with a 3% drop this winter. In contrast, European tourism is projected to grow by about 8% this year, a pace Ireland seems unable to match. The ITIC anticipates that tourism growth in Ireland will lag due to capacity strains and supply issues. As a response, the ITIC is redirecting focus towards regional airports, including Cork, Shannon, Kerry, and Ireland West. Notably, Cork Airport emerged as the fastest growing airport among the state-run facilities last year, reporting an 11% growth rate in the first seven months. Despite Cork's promising trajectory and potential to unveil record route schedules for 2025, industry experts caution that the growth seen in regional airports will not make up for the lost opportunities at Dublin Airport, which remains the preferred choice for many international carriers.