A Volatile Geopolitical Hotspot
The South China Sea remains a critical geopolitical flashpoint, with escalating tensions and territorial disputes involving China and its neighboring countries. As countries within and outside the region become increasingly involved, Radio Free Asia's latest report highlights five key developments to watch in 2025.
Heightened Military Activity
The Taiwan Strait has witnessed an intensification of military activities, with nearly 3,000 incursions into Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) between January and November 2024. These incursions were accompanied by two major Chinese military exercises, aligned with significant political events in Taiwan. Chinese leader Xi Jinping emphasized the "inevitable" unification of Taiwan, prompting concerns about potential escalation.
Mounting Tensions
At Scarborough Shoal, located within the Philippines' exclusive economic zone but under de facto Chinese control, tensions have been mounting. China's coast guard and maritime militia have maintained a strong presence, engaging in confrontations with Philippine vessels. The Philippines has been actively removing Chinese floating barriers around the reefs, but access for Filipino fishermen remains limited.
Heightened Tension
The situation at Second Thomas Shoal has also seen heightened tension. In 2024, China and the Philippines were engaged in multiple stand-offs at the shoal, located in the Philippines' exclusive economic zone. Both sides later called for de-escalation, but the situation remains tense, especially given the proximity of the shoal to China's heavily militarized Mischief Reef.
4. Vietnam's Island-Building Activities
Vietnam's island-building activities in the South China Sea have reached record levels, significantly expanding its holdings and altering the balance of power in the region. These developments are expected to have a major impact on the strategic landscape of the South China Sea.
A Prolonged Deadlock
The ongoing negotiations over the Code of Conduct (COC) for the South China Sea remain a key issue. Despite efforts by China and ASEAN countries, progress has been slow. The prolonged deadlock highlights the division within ASEAN and the complexity of reaching a consensus.
As Malaysia takes over the chairmanship of ASEAN in 2025, it remains to be seen how the country will approach these challenges and the future of the South China Sea.
5 Comments
Habibi
Instead of focusing on military build-up, China should be working with its neighbors to develop the region's resources sustainably.
Marishka
China is well within its rights to assert its sovereignty over the South China Sea. It has historical and legal claims to the region.
Pupsik
The South China Sea issue is a reminder of the importance of diplomacy and cooperation. We need to work together to find solutions that benefit everyone.
Marishka
I'm worried about the environmental impact of all these military activities in the South China Sea. It's a fragile ecosystem.
Pupsik
The South China Sea disputes are complex and there are no easy answers. But we need to find a way to resolve them peacefully before it's too late.