A Pandora's Box of Potential Consequences and Strained Relations

A Potential Pandora's Box

President-elect Donald Trump's plan to designate Mexican drug cartels as "foreign terrorist organizations" has sparked controversy and raised concerns about its potential consequences. Experts warn that such a move could provide the legal framework for the U.S. to conduct military operations in Mexico, significantly straining the already complex relationship between the two countries.

The designation would allow the U.S. government to impose additional economic and social sanctions on the cartels. More importantly, it would bolster the president's authority to carry out military operations against those involved with the cartels, including foreign states suspected of supporting them. This includes the ability to preemptively deploy military force.

However, such action would likely be met with strong opposition from Mexico. Former Mexican ambassador to the U.S., Gerónimo Gutiérrez, believes it would "set the relationship… back three decades." In 2019, Trump nearly designated Mexican drug cartels as "terrorists" but backed out after compromising with Mexico.

Despite the potential backlash, Trump has reiterated his intention to pursue this designation. He has campaigned aggressively on combating illegal immigration and drug trafficking, specifically related to fentanyl. He is holding Mexico accountable in the efforts to stop drug influx into the U.S., already promising to enact a 25 percent tariff on Mexican imported goods.

However, experts argue that designating cartels as "terrorists" would be a strategic error with unpredictable consequences. The purpose of such a designation is primarily to stop the flow of money and allow federal prosecutors to pursue criminal penalties against cartel members and allies. It also provides legal backing for the president to carry out military operations.

However, the broad interpretation of the Authorization for Use of Military Force of 2001 Act, which allows the president to conduct operations against individuals and organizations linked to those who conducted the September 11 attacks, raises concerns about potential mission creep.

Mexican officials argue that treating organized crime as terrorism only diverts resources and attention from real solutions. They emphasize the need for collaboration between the two countries to fight drug trafficking, but reject any form of subordination.

The potential consequences of Trump's plan are far-reaching and require careful consideration. While the goal of combating drug trafficking is shared by both countries, the methods employed should be carefully evaluated to avoid unintended consequences and further strain the already fragile U.S.-Mexico relationship.