A Calculated Move Amidst Cross-Straits Tensions and Political Maneuvering

Taiwan Authorities Conduct "Tabletop Simulation" Amidst Cross-Straits Tensions

With recent cross-strait exchanges thawing relations, Taiwan's self-proclaimed "presidential office" held its first "tabletop simulation" to test the island's response to a potential conflict with the Chinese mainland. The exercise focused on "defense resilience" and involved various departments and civil groups.

Mainland analysts believe the simulation reflects the DPP's attempt to undermine the positive exchange atmosphere by instilling fear of mainland "threats" in the Taiwanese population. They also see it as a sign of the DPP's unwillingness to abandon their secessionist path, even at the cost of human lives.

The simulation included scenarios of mainland "high-intensity grey-zone operations" and situations where Taiwan is "on the verge of conflict." It aimed to test the "response readiness" of both authorities and civil society.

The DPP authorities claim their goal is to train over 50,000 volunteers across the island by next year, equipping them with emergency response skills, including first aid.

Professor Zheng Jian of Xiamen University believes the simulation emphasizes "defense resilience," suggesting the DPP's focus on alleyway warfare, guerrilla tactics, and the concept of "turning every Taiwan resident into a soldier."

He also sees the exercise as an attempt to create fear and further an "anti-mainland" atmosphere, especially during a period of increased cross-strait interactions.

The mainland has responded to Taiwan secessionist provocations with military drills and active promotion of cross-strait exchanges and integrated development.

Former Chinese Kuomintang Party leader Ma Ying-jeou led a delegation of Taiwan students to visit the mainland in 2024, and a mainland delegation featuring Olympics medalists visited Taiwan in November.

Zheng predicts that the DPP authorities may organize more civil defense exercises and training at local levels in 2025. However, he believes these efforts are more of an "election-oriented political fraud" given the significant military strength disparity between the two sides.

Other mainland analysts attribute the DPP's confrontational stance to their panic over the mainland's continuous military pressure. They believe the secessionists are aware of the military power gap and the uncertainty of external support in a potential conflict.

Zheng compares Taiwan secessionists to terminally ill patients with no cure. He emphasizes that the Taiwanese public does not desire war and that Taiwan's military lacks the strength and confidence to confront the mainland.