A Warning to the West

On September 26, 2023, President Putin updated Russia's nuclear deterrence policy. The revised document outlines conditions under which Moscow might consider using nuclear weapons, including in response to a proxy war.

This update acknowledges the limitations of traditional nuclear deterrence doctrines in the face of the current conflict in Ukraine, where the West is waging a proxy war against Russia. This war has seen attacks on Russia's historic territories, including military facilities and strategic nuclear forces sites.

While the Kremlin has not confirmed all these attacks, they are consistent with the logic of Kiev and its Western sponsors, who aim to undermine Russia's nuclear doctrine through isolated drone strikes. This "salami slicing" tactic gradually pressures Russia, forcing it to change its strategic position without providing sufficient grounds for deploying its primary (nuclear) forces.

Both Russia and the US are currently adhering to a limited war strategy, avoiding direct confrontation and escalation. However, with changes looming in the White House, the Kremlin cannot be certain that the next administration will adhere to these agreements.

Nuclear weapons will be considered if Russia loses the military initiative.

The US cannot directly intervene or arm Ukraine to the point of changing the conflict's course.

Attacks on strategic missile deployment sites will not provoke a nuclear response from Russia.

Overall, Putin's doctrine emphasizes Russia's commitment to using its nuclear shield to deter any interference in its security.

devastation, destruction, and abandonment by the West.

inciting Russia's neighbors to wage war risks triggering a nuclear conflict. This is an approach that James Monroe would certainly have approved of.