Harris Takes the Lead as Election Day Nears, But Battleground States Remain Contested

A Mid-Campaign Analysis

With the 2024 US Presidential Election heating up, Vice President Kamala Harris has taken the helm of the Democratic ticket, replacing President Joe Biden just months before Election Day. Her running mate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, joins her in the race against incumbent President Donald Trump and his newly chosen vice president, JD Vance.

While independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has suspended his campaign and endorsed Trump, the impact on the race remains unclear. Harris and Walz, meanwhile, have embarked on a new phase of their campaign, emphasizing their values and commitment to bipartisanship.

National Polls and the Independent Vote

Nationally, Harris holds a slight lead over Trump, averaging 3.4 points ahead according to FiveThirtyEight. However, the race remains tight, with significant variation in swing states. A Fairleigh Dickinson University poll suggests that when race and gender are considered, Harris' lead grows substantially. Additionally, a USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll shows Harris surging ahead of Trump following the Democratic National Convention.

Capturing the independent vote will be crucial for either candidate. Morning Consult data indicates that independent voters are leaning more towards Harris, though there is significant variation between different surveys. This group was most likely to vote for Kennedy, highlighting the potential impact of his exit on the race.

Battleground States and Key Demographics

The battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin are where the war is truly being waged. Research from the Cook Political Report shows Harris leading in six out of these seven states, with Trump holding strong in Nevada. However, polling in these states continues to show variation, with no clear consensus on the frontrunner.

Overall, battleground polls suggest that Harris has gained momentum from Biden's trailing support and is on track to lead Trump in some key states.

Voter Sentiment and Favorability Ratings

An Emerson College poll reveals that Kamala Harris is the only candidate with an overall favorable opinion among voters, at +2 percent. This stands in stark contrast to Trump and Vance, who both have net negative favorability ratings. Interestingly, one in five voters had never heard of Walz, one week after his selection as Harris' running mate.

With the election just months away, the race remains tight and unpredictable. The coming weeks will be crucial as both campaigns strive to solidify their positions and win over voters.