Strength or Weakness?

Donald Trump has pledged to broker peace in Ukraine, but analysts warn that his success hinges on Ukraine's position of strength. While Trump prioritizes ending the war and reducing US military involvement, his choice of retired Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg as special envoy raises concerns. Kellogg previously suggested handing over Ukrainian territory to Russia, a move European allies fear could embolden Russia and lead to further conflict.

Experts emphasize that a meaningful peace deal requires backing Ukraine and ensuring its strong negotiating position. John Lough of Chatham House warns that abandoning Ukraine could project weakness and embolden US rivals. Instead, Ukraine needs to be equipped to deter Russia, which has recently made significant advances due to Ukraine's lack of resources.

Kellogg's approach differs from President Biden's, who supported arming Ukraine and allowing Kyiv to decide on negotiations. Kellogg advocates cutting aid if Ukraine refuses to negotiate with Russia, but boosting aid if Russia declines talks. However, Evelyn Farkas of the McCain Institute argues that Putin has little incentive for peace if he perceives weakening support for Ukraine.

Ultimately, achieving lasting peace in Ukraine requires deterring Russia, not disengagement. As Lough concludes, any deal will likely involve continued US support and a strong Ukrainian military to prevent further aggression.