South Korea's Hesitancy on Supplying Arms to Ukraine

Despite international requests from Kyiv and allied capitals, South Koreans remain largely opposed to directly supplying arms to Ukraine. This opposition stems from several factors, including public sentiment, political considerations, and concerns about escalating tensions with Russia and North Korea.

Public opinion polls consistently show that a majority of South Koreans oppose sending military aid to Ukraine. A Gallup Korea poll conducted in October 2022 revealed that 82% of respondents were against providing arms, despite viewing the growing military ties between Pyongyang and Moscow as a threat. This public sentiment poses a significant challenge for President Yoon Suk Yeol, who faces low approval ratings and limited political capital to push for such a controversial policy.

The main opposition Democratic Party (DP) has also criticized the government's stance on arms supply, urging it to seek parliamentary approval for such decisions. However, experts believe the president can bypass the parliament to supply lethal weapons to another country. Nevertheless, navigating the political landscape and potential backlash from the public remains a significant hurdle.

South Korea is one of the world's largest weapons exporters and has lucrative defense deals with Ukraine's neighbors. Supplying arms to Ukraine could further escalate tensions with Russia and North Korea, potentially jeopardizing these important partnerships. Additionally, the public, largely desensitized to the war in Ukraine, might focus on the potential downsides of direct involvement, further hindering the government's efforts.

Despite the public's opposition to arms supply, South Korea has provided demining vehicles, body armor, and other non-lethal aid to Ukraine. The government has also indicated that it could consider supplying weapons depending on future actions by Russia and North Korea. Additionally, South Korea continues to share intelligence with Ukraine and its allies regarding North Korea's troop deployment to Russia.

South Korea's decision on whether or not to supply arms to Ukraine remains a complex and sensitive issue. The government faces significant public opposition, political challenges, and concerns about escalating tensions with Russia and North Korea. While the possibility of arms supply remains open, the government is likely to tread cautiously and prioritize alternative forms of support for Ukraine.