China Likely to Launch Military Drills Near Taiwan in Response to President Lai's Trip

Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te's upcoming trip to the Pacific and scheduled U.S. transit is likely to be met with military drills from China in the coming days, according to assessments by Taiwan and regional security officials.

Lai will embark on a visit to Taiwan's three diplomatic allies in the Pacific on Saturday, with planned stops in Hawaii and possibly Guam. This sensitive trip comes shortly after the U.S. election and is likely to draw a strong response from China, which views Taiwan as its own territory and opposes any official interactions between Taiwan and other countries.

China has already conducted two major military exercises around Taiwan this year, dubbed "Joint Sword - 2024A" and "Joint Sword - 2024B." These exercises were seen as a pressure tactic against Taiwan and a demonstration of China's military capabilities.

In response to Lai's trip, China could "repackage" ongoing regular military activities in the South China Sea or the East China Sea, moving them closer to Taiwan and rebranding them "Joint Sword - 2024C." Additionally, China could expand the size of its regular "joint combat readiness patrol" and launch a "targeted" exercise towards the end of Lai's trip.

These military drills are seen as a way for China to show the incoming U.S. administration of President-elect Donald Trump that the first island chain is "China's sphere of influence." The first island chain runs from Japan through Taiwan, the Philippines, and on to Borneo, enclosing China's coastal seas.

While the drills are likely to be more limited in scope than the two earlier rounds this year due to unstable winter weather conditions in the Taiwan Strait, they could still be seen as a test of the Trump administration's bottom line.

Taiwan presidents typically take advantage of stop-overs in the United States to give speeches and meet with friendly politicians. Lai will be visiting the Marshall Islands, Tuvalu, and Palau, three of the 12 remaining countries maintaining official diplomatic ties with Taipei.

China has responded militarily to similar trips in the past, and it is possible that they will do so again in response to Lai's visit.