In 2018, the arrest of a Huawei executive for violating U.S. laws sent shockwaves through President Xi Jinping's inner circle, raising questions about whether then-President Donald Trump would intervene. Trump now faces a similar dilemma with the indictment of Gautam Adani, India's most powerful businessman and a close ally of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, in a $250 million bribery scheme.

While Modi's party has called the case a private matter and Adani's company has denied the allegations, the case threatens to disrupt U.S.-India diplomatic relations. Although Trump did not intervene in the Huawei case, which was eventually settled in 2021 after he left office, he may have more incentive to do so in this instance.

Beyond Trump's personal connection with Modi, his incoming administration includes several China hawks who advocate for stronger ties with India to counterbalance Beijing's regional influence. The outcome of this case could have significant implications for the future of U.S.-India relations and the broader geopolitical landscape.