A Show of Force in the Pacific

China's test-firing of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) into the Pacific Ocean on Wednesday has sent ripples through the region, raising concerns about its growing nuclear capabilities and intentions. This rare occurrence, the first such test in international waters since 1980, comes amidst heightened tensions in the region, where multiple countries have overlapping territorial claims and both Beijing and Washington seek to exert their influence.

The Chinese Defense Ministry stated that the launch was part of routine training by the People's Liberation Army's Rocket Force and was not aimed at any specific country or target. However, experts believe the choice of the Pacific Ocean as the launch location carries a significant message.

"There is no other potential audience, as China does not expect to have to confront the EU or the U.K. militarily," said Steve Tsang, director of the SOAS China Institute in London. He sees the test as a display of China's growing nuclear capabilities and a warning to the United States and its allies in the region.

The timing of the test also adds to its significance. It comes just weeks ahead of an expected call between Chinese leader Xi Jinping and U.S. President Joe Biden, and amidst heightened regional security tensions with U.S. allies Japan and the Philippines. Additionally, it coincides with the U.N. General Assembly meeting in New York, further amplifying its message to the international order.

Drew Thompson, a senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore, believes the launch is a "pretty blunt signal" to the international community. He sees it as a message that China is prepared to use its most powerful weapons to deter adversaries or punish them if needed.

The test also follows a series of corruption arrests within the Chinese Rocket Force, potentially aiming to reassure the domestic audience and signal to the world that these issues have been addressed.

China's military modernization under Xi Jinping has been significant, with investments in high-tech military technologies, including stealth fighters, aircraft carriers, and a growing nuclear arsenal. The country's defense budget has more than doubled since 2015, despite its slowing economic growth.

The U.S. Department of Defense estimates that China has more than 500 operational nuclear warheads and is on track to accumulate over 1,000 by 2030. This puts China's nuclear arsenal behind Russia's estimated 5,580 warheads and the U.S.'s 5,044 warheads.

While few countries possess ICBMs, North Korea has conducted multiple tests since 2017, and the U.S. also fired two unarmed ICBMs earlier this year. However, China's test in the Pacific Ocean marks a significant escalation, highlighting its growing military capabilities and assertive stance in the region.