Israel's military claimed on Saturday that Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, was killed in airstrikes targeting the group's central headquarters in Beirut's southern suburbs. Hezbollah later confirmed Nasrallah's death.
The airstrikes also reportedly killed an unspecified number of other Hezbollah commanders. Nasrallah's cousin, Hashem Safieddine, is widely considered his successor. Safieddine oversees Hezbollah's political affairs and civilian operations, including its education and financial systems. The 60-year-old has been on the United States' terror list since 2017.
In recent years, Nasrallah has rarely appeared in public, often represented by Safieddine. This includes the funerals of high-ranking Hezbollah members killed in last week's coordinated detonation of communication devices, widely attributed to Israel.
With many of the group's commanders killed in Friday's airstrikes, Nestorovic suggests that new leadership could emerge from outside Lebanon, potentially from Iran, Syria, or Iraq, where Hezbollah has strong ties with other Iran-backed militant groups.
While expectations of retaliation from Iran exist, Nestorovic points to Tehran's history of muted responses in previous incidents. He cites the subdued reaction to the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran in July and the pager blasts as examples. Iran typically issues strong threats but takes little action.
"I'm not so sure that Iran will react strongly, because there would be retaliation from Israel and (its allies)," Nestorovic told CNA's Asia Now.
James Dorsey, an adjunct senior fellow at the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies, believes Iran is in a difficult position. Tehran desires to rebuild bridges to obtain sanctions relief but also wants to avoid appearing weak, especially to its allies, by not responding.
"For Iran to calibrate a response in a way that does not lead to escalation is going to be very difficult and a tightrope," Dorsey said, adding that both Iran and Hezbollah do not desire an all-out war with Israel.
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