According to U.S. intelligence reports, there is a belief that Russia could aggressively retaliate against the United States and its coalition partners if they permit Ukraine to use long-range missiles supplied by the U.S., U.K., and France for operations deep inside Russian territory. Officials indicate that this intelligence assessment is new and suggests that the impact of these long-range missiles on the ongoing conflict might not be as significant as expected, due to Ukraine’s limited access to such weaponry and the uncertainty surrounding potential additional supplies from Western allies.

The analysis underscores the perceived risks and ambiguous benefits associated with a pivotal decision now facing President Biden, who recently met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the White House. These intelligence insights may clarify why Biden has faced challenges in making this decision, highlighting the internal pressures he faces to deny Zelensky's request while recognizing the complexities of the situation. The ultimate decision from Biden remains uncertain, reflecting the cautious approach being taken by U.S. officials amidst evolving military dynamics.