Challenges to a Ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah

Analysts believe that a proposed three-week ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah faces significant hurdles, as it fails to meet the key demands of both sides.

Hezbollah's leadership has consistently stated that they will continue fighting until a ceasefire is reached between Israel and Hamas in Gaza. As an ally of Hamas, which also receives support from Iran, Hezbollah would face criticism from its strongest supporters if it paused its own conflict with Israel while Hamas continued fighting. This could be seen as abandoning both its principles and its ally.

On the Israeli side, leaders seek more than just a temporary period of calm along the northern border. They have repeatedly expressed their desire for a fundamental shift in the security dynamics of the border region. Since October, Hezbollah and Israel have engaged in a tit-for-tat exchange of missile fire, sparked by the Lebanese militia's attacks on Israeli positions in solidarity with Hamas.

The conflict has displaced over 60,000 Israelis from their homes in northern Israel and hundreds of thousands of Lebanese civilians from southern Lebanon. To encourage displaced Israelis to return home, Israel demands a permanent withdrawal of Hezbollah fighters from the border and an end to rocket attacks on Israeli communities.

Therefore, the proposed three-week ceasefire falls short of the demands of both Israel and Hezbollah, making its acceptance by either side highly unlikely.