As the election day draws nearer, Republican strategists are focusing on gender dynamics in polling, especially as Vice President Kamala Harris retains support from a majority of women. Recent polling by Reuters/Ipsos indicates that Harris has increased her backing from women by three percentage points since the Democratic National Convention, which may be linked to the Democratic emphasis on reproductive rights, a pressing concern for many voters this election cycle.

Conversely, Donald Trump is witnessing a decline in support from women while gaining traction with male voters. After the Democratic National Convention, Trump saw a five-point increase in support from men, yet he only maintains a slim five-point lead over Harris among that group. In contrast, Harris leads Trump by a notable 13 percentage points among women, with preliminary data showing that 54 percent of women favor Harris compared to 41 percent for Trump—an even wider gap than during the 2020 election.

Historically, women have inclined more towards Democratic candidates, and Republican pollster Whit Ayres warned that this "traditional gender gap" may evolve into a wider "gender chasm." Looking back at the 2016 presidential election results, 54 percent of women supported Hillary Clinton while 41 percent backed Trump. In 2020, this gap narrowed slightly, with 55 percent of women voting for Biden, compared to 44 percent for Trump. Current preliminary data suggests that the divide between Trump and Harris is especially pronounced across generational lines.

A poll commissioned by the New York Times and Siena College illustrates that younger voters, particularly those aged 18 to 29, exhibit a substantial gender gap. In a recent poll of six pivotal swing states, young women favored Harris by an impressive 38 points, while men were in favor of Trump by 13 points. This demographic of young women is typically more liberal, with factors such as the #MeToo movement and the reversal of federal abortion rights in 2021 influencing their perspectives.

Trump's campaign has faced challenges as well, with remarks from figures like JD Vance referring to women without children as "childless cat ladies," and the former president's connections to conservative organizations like the Heritage Foundation, which has initiated Project 2025, potentially alienating young female voters. Analysts assert that the results of the upcoming presidential election may be heavily influenced by this significant gender gap unless Republicans manage to effectively broaden their appeal to women. To counter this, Trump's campaign has advocated for reproductive freedoms, including support for IVF access, abortion pills, and a refusal to impose a national abortion ban.