A "Reset" Amidst War and Uncertainty

Dmytro Kuleba, Ukraine's outspoken foreign minister, has offered his resignation as part of a major cabinet reshuffle orchestrated by President Volodymyr Zelensky. This shake-up, the largest since Russia's invasion in February 2022, is seen as a political "reset" aimed at strengthening Ukraine's government and solidifying Zelensky's control over policy.

The reshuffle comes at a critical juncture for Ukraine. The country has been losing ground in the eastern Donetsk region, facing relentless drone and missile attacks on its energy infrastructure, and grappling with the looming threat of a harsh winter. However, a recent audacious cross-border offensive into Russia's Kursk region, where Ukrainian forces have captured significant territory, has provided a much-needed morale boost and demonstrated Kyiv's ability to surprise its enemy.

The timing of the cabinet reshuffle, reportedly in the works for months, may be partially aimed at backing up this offensive and demonstrating to Western allies like the US and UK that Zelensky is making the necessary decisions to give Ukraine the best chance against Russia. With US elections looming in November and Zelensky's upcoming visit to the UN General Assembly, the Ukrainian president is acutely aware of the scrutiny his every move faces.

Part of the rationale for the Kursk offensive was to counter Russian gains in the east by seizing territory that could be used in any future peace negotiations. A stable and unified cabinet would be crucial for such talks, although opposition politicians have expressed concerns about the reshuffle's potential to further consolidate power in Zelensky's hands.

The reshuffle will see more than half of the current cabinet replaced, with new appointments expected to be announced on Thursday. Kuleba's successor is yet to be named, but several Ukrainian media outlets have cited unnamed sources suggesting his deputy, Andrii Sybiha, will take over the role.

Russia's response to the Kursk offensive has been to intensify its aerial assault across Ukraine. A recent strike on the western city of Lviv, killing at least seven people, underscores the vulnerability of all of Ukraine to Moscow's long-range capabilities. This follows another deadly attack on Poltava, where over 50 people were killed and more than 200 injured.

As winter approaches, movement on the front line will become difficult, and Russia is expected to increase its rocket and drone attacks on cities. Zelensky is acutely aware of the hardships his people face and the crucial need for support from Western allies. This cabinet reshuffle is part of his attempt to showcase his strength and control in the face of these challenges. The success of this "reset" remains to be seen, but it is a crucial step for Ukraine as it navigates the complexities of war and the path towards a future peace.