In response to the recent killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has instructed Iran to launch direct retaliatory strikes against Israel. This significant decision was made during an urgent meeting of Iran's Supreme National Security Council shortly after the announcement of Haniyeh's assassination, which Iran attributes to Israeli forces. Although engaged in conflict with Hamas in Gaza, Israel has not confirmed or denied involvement in the attack.

For nearly ten months, Iran has attempted to manage the situation by increasing pressure on Israel through its proxies while aiming to avoid full-scale war. The most notable retaliation so far occurred in April when Iran launched a large-scale assault of missiles and drones on Israel, responding to an earlier Israeli strike that resulted in the deaths of several Iranian military leaders in Syria.

As the tension escalates, the depth of Iran's forthcoming response remains uncertain, along with the possibility of limiting their attacks to military targets rather than civilians. Iranian commanders are contemplating a multi-front coordinated attack involving allied forces in various regions, including Yemen, Syria, and Iraq.

Khamenei, who holds ultimate authority over state matters and is the commander-in-chief of the armed forces, has directed military leaders to prepare for both offensive and defensive strategies should the conflict intensify. In his remarks regarding Haniyeh's death, Khamenei asserted the necessity of retribution, framing it as a state duty since the incident occurred on Iranian soil, while emphasizing that Israel has laid the groundwork for severe consequences.

Multiple Iranian officials, including the newly inaugurated President Masoud Pezeshkian, have publicly affirmed that Iran will retaliate, asserting their right to defend against any infringement on their sovereignty. The relationships between Iran and various regional militant groups highlight a network referred to as the "axis of resistance," which includes Hamas, Hezbollah, and other factions linked to Iranian interests.

Haniyeh's assassination took place shortly after his meeting with Khamenei during a highly secure event, leading to a significant embarrassment for Iran, which seeks to portray strength but has struggled to prevent Israeli covert operations on its territory. Analysts suggest that Tehran views retaliation as critical for avenging Haniyeh’s death and as a means to deter further Israeli assaults against key figures like Hezbollah’s leader and other influential military commanders.