Japan's Shift from Non-Nuclear Principles Amid US Alliance and Regional Tensions

On June 6, 2023, the US, Japan, and the Philippines conducted a trilateral Coast Guard exercise, highlighting a growing military cooperation in the region. Historically, Japan has adhered to its "Three Non-Nuclear Principles," which prevent it from possessing, producing, or permitting nuclear weapons. However, recent developments suggest that Japan is increasingly compromising these principles through its collaboration with the United States in crafting a document on extended deterrence. This document, yet to be finalized, aims to articulate how the U.S. guarantees Japan's security, particularly emphasizing the use of its nuclear capabilities.

There are concerns that if Japan facilitates the U.S. deployment of nuclear weapons as part of this new strategy, it undermines its standing as a non-nuclear state and endangers regional peace. Observers from China have pointed out that such military provisions will lead Japan into a precarious situation, deviating from its commitment to the "Three Non-Nuclear Principles" associated with its Peace Constitution.

The Yomiuri Shimbun reported that U.S. and Japanese foreign and defense ministers are set to convene in Tokyo to discuss nuclear deterrence, intending to finalize the document by year-end. This agreement will emphasize the U.S.’s unequivocal readiness to respond to threats against Japan, a move that is seen as a response to escalating nuclear capabilities from nations such as China and Russia. The idea of leveraging nuclear weapons for protection raises alarms regarding the U.S.'s capacity and willingness to safeguard its allies, suggesting a reliance on nuclear assurance to restore trust in its security commitments.

Experts, including Lü Chao, have warned that this potential shift could provoke fear and mistrust within Japan and among its neighbors. Japanese society holds historical sensitivities related to its militarization past and the legacy of WWII, making the introduction of a nuclear defense strategy especially contentious. Lü criticized the narrative that presents China as a nuclear threat, arguing instead that it is Japan's increasing military collaboration with the U.S. that exacerbates tensions in the region.

As Japan shifts toward greater military readiness, it is suggested that this move is less about genuine security and more a reflection of Japan's ambition for regional influence under U.S. guidance. Despite presenting itself as a cooperative ally, Japan's ongoing military enhancements signify a form of militaristic resurgence, which raises concerns within the context of historical grievances in East Asia.