Polling Update and Concerns for Democrats Amidst Minimal Change in the Race

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Polling Update

President Joe Biden's disastrous debate performance against former President Donald Trump has sparked concerns among Democrats about his re-election prospects. However, a closer look at the polls reveals a more nuanced picture.

While Biden is trailing Trump in some national and battleground polls, the movement is still within the margin of error. This suggests that the race remains tight, and the outcome could hinge on small margins.

The national polls show minimal change after the debate. In the CBS News/YouGov poll, Trump's lead increased from 1 point to 2 points, while in CNN's poll, his lead remained at 6 points. The biggest movement came from the New York Times/Siena College poll, where Trump's lead increased from 6 points to 8 points among registered voters.

Battleground state polls also show a mostly stable race. Bloomberg News/Morning Consult polls found Trump slightly ahead in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania, while Biden is ahead in Michigan and Wisconsin. The exception is a Saint Anselm College poll of New Hampshire, which found Trump narrowly ahead.

While the topline results don't suggest a significant shift in the race, perceptions of Biden's health have changed. The CBS/YouGov poll found that the share of voters believing Biden has the mental and cognitive health to be president dropped from 35% in June to 27% after the debate.

National Democrats are understandably concerned about Biden's performance and its potential impact on his re-election bid. However, the polls raise important questions about why they weren't more concerned before the debate, given that the numbers already indicated a difficult road for Biden.

It's possible that most voters have already formed their opinions about Biden and Trump, making them less susceptible to major events like the debate. However, another seismic event could potentially shift the race in either direction for the undecided voters.

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May 21, 2023 | 05:09