Mr. Drummond believes that any potential strikes by Ukraine will be limited to border regions, avoiding deep incursions into Russia. He views such strikes as a significant escalation. He predicts that if Russia achieves victory in Ukraine or is granted any concessions, Ukraine will launch a counterinsurgency campaign within Russia. This campaign, according to Mr. Drummond, would be far more devastating than the current frontlines. He describes it as "unpleasant" and anticipates "terrorist activity" including attacks on schools and infrastructure.

Mr. Drummond believes that this counterinsurgency campaign is already being planned by Ukraine and would be a more terrifying prospect for Putin than a conventional war. He argues that if Ukrainians unleash this terror campaign, Putin would face immense pressure and potentially lose power as the Russian people demand action.

Ukraine's ability to strike back against Russia has been enhanced by the US allowing Kyiv to use American weapons against Russian territory. On Friday, Ukraine initiated such strikes, targeting the Kerch Ferry crossing with US Army Tactical missiles. The Kerch Ferry crossing connects Crimea to the Russian region of Krasnodar Krai. Ukraine claims to have inflicted significant damage on two ferries transporting railway and car transports.